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Presentan sistemas matemáticos de ayuda a las ONG en desastres naturales |
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Un equipo de matemáticos de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) ha desarrollado una aplicación informática que estima la magnitud de los desastres naturales y facilita a las ONG la toma de decisiones. Los investigadores también han presentado un modelo para la distribución de ayuda humanitaria sobre el terreno. Ambos podrían haberse aplicado en el reciente terremoto de Haití.“El Sistema Experto para el Diagnóstico en Desastres (SEDD) es una herramienta informática de predicción y diagnóstico de los desastres naturales para ayudar a las ONG en la toma de decisiones estratégicas”, explica a SINC Begoña Vitoriano, coautora de un estudio que este mes publica la revistaKnowledge-Based Systems y profesora del Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa de la Facultad de Matemáticas de la UCM. El programa parte de la información sobre el tipo de desastre (terremoto, inundación, huracán, tsunami, incendio...), unidades cuantificables (escala Richter para terremotos, velocidad del viento para huracanes, etc.) y una medida de la vulnerabilidad de la zona. Para obtener ésta última, la más difícil de conseguir, los científicos emplean el índice de desarrollo humano que facilita la ONU por país, y lo modifican para ajustarlo a la situación de la región afectada.
Con estos datos la aplicación informática estima la magnitud de las consecuencias de la catástrofe “en términos de fallecidos, heridos, personas sin hogar, otros afectados y coste”, una información muy útil para las ONG. La elección de estas variables se ha realizado a partir de la base de datos del Centro de Investigación en Epidemiología de Desastres de la Universidad de Lovaina (Bélgica), colaborador de la OMS.
Para enfrentarse a la alta imprecisión e incertidumbre de los datos que se manejan en estos casos, los investigadores trabajan con lógica difusa, una herramienta matemática que opera con intervalos de números (no con cifras exactas) para tratar de cuantificar “lo mucho o lo poco” de magnitudes como el número de heridos o afectados.
“El sistema de ayuda a la decisión que proponemos se podría haber aplicado perfectamente tras el reciente terremoto de Haití, ya que se centra en la valoración de las consecuencias de desastres como éste, donde la primera información es escasa, poco fiable o, en general, de baja calidad”, apunta a SINC Juan Tinguaro Rodríguez, miembro también del equipo de la UCM.
Reparto de la ayuda más eficaz
Otra de las aplicaciones informáticas desarrolladas por estos matemáticos y que acaba de publicar la revista Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, es un sistema de distribución de ayuda humanitaria (HADS, por sus siglas en inglés: Humanitarian Aid Distribution System).
La herramienta se basa en el uso de un mapa logístico del territorio, con nodos (localidades) y conexiones (caminos y carreteras). El “grafo” incluye la demanda de ayuda en unos nodos (poblaciones afectadas), la oferta en otros (aeropuertos, puertos o almacenes), la disponibilidad y características de los vehículos (tipo, capacidad, velocidad, coste), así como datos sobre las conexiones (distancias, estado de las carreteras, riesgo de asalto).
“El complejo problema de elegir las rutas de distribución más adecuadas se plantea como un asunto que hay que resolver a gran velocidad y mediante decisión ‘multicriterio’, ya que hay que tener en cuenta aspectos como el tiempo de respuesta, el presupuesto, la fiabilidad en la llegada de los envíos, el riesgo de asalto, la equidad en el reparto o la prioridad de llegar a determinadas zonas”, señala Begoña Vitoriano.
La experta reconoce que al plantear el problema de esta forma “es mucho más difícil de resolver, pero resulta mucho más real y útil para las organizaciones”. El equipo sigue mejorando ambos modelos para dar servicio de acceso libre vía web a las ONG involucradas en acciones de logística humanitaria. Para ello cuentan con el apoyo del programa de financiación pública IMath-Consolider, dentro del Plan Nacional de I+D+i.
Referencias bibliográficas:
Juan Tinguaro Rodríguez, Begoña Vitoriano y Javier Montero. “A natural-disaster management DSS for Humanitarian Non-Governmental Oganisations”. Knowledge-Based Systems 23 (1): 17-22, febrero de 2010.
Begoña Vitoriano, María Teresa Ortuño, Gregorio Tirado. “HADS, a goal programming-based humanitarian aid distribution system”. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 16 (1-2): 55-64, enero de 2010 (On line).
Enviado el Jueves, 11 febrero a las 17:32:22 por divulgacioncientifica
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